3
Libertango
2yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 3 · OR 115
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 1.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Newmarket | Billy Loughnane | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | York | Billy Loughnane | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | Billy Loughnane | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | Billy Loughnane | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Leicester | Billy Loughnane | 4 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 73/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength98%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |