1
Moonrise
2yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 1 · OR 109
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Newmarket | Tom Marquand | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Kempton | Oisin Murphy | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | Oisin Murphy | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | P J McDonald | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Kempton | Oisin Murphy | 4 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 49/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength78%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 66/1 | 0% | 96% | +0.96 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 26/09/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |