5
Mussab
2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 108
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Newmarket | O J Orr | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | O J Orr | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | O J Orr | 4 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-08-21 | York | Colin Keane | 1 | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | Colin Keane | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | O J Orr | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/10/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |