13
Ruiva
2yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 13 · OR 103
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Keeneland | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Del Mar | Yedsit Hazlewood | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | Juan Hernandez | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | Juan Hernandez | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 11-12 · tight 78/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -17.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 04/10/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 63% | -0.30 |