10
Emphatic
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 10 · OR 94
Keeneland · Race 7 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - Grade 1 · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Keeneland | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Monmouth Park | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | Mychel Sanchez | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/10/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |