7
Lexi's Charm
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 94
Keeneland · Race 7 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - Grade 1 · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -5.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Keeneland | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 9th | −6 |
| 2026-08-26 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 9-11 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 07/10/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |