8
Manuka Honey
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 8 · OR 99
Keeneland · Race 7 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - Grade 1 · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲5
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -5.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | Luis Saez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | Luis Saez | BHA103 | 1st | 13th | −10 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | Luis Saez | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 71/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |