4
Rum Twist
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 81
Keeneland · Race 7 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - Grade 1 · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲4
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: -4.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Belmont Park | Paco Lopez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | Paco Lopez | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | John Velazquez | ? | 4th | 11th | −6 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | John Velazquez | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 7-12 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 03/10/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |