1
Scarlett Begonia
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 92
Keeneland · Race 7 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - Grade 1 · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | Flavien Prat | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | Luan Machado | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 10-12 · tight 71/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |