Alwaysanangel

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 110

Keeneland · Race 8 - John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - Grade 1 · 1m

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

82%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C0.5

Today:

Class gap: -0.3

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-26	Newmarket	W Buick	1	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-14	Cork	Dylan Browne McMonagle	1	1st	2nd	−1	8.3
2026-07-10	Newmarket	Dylan Browne McMonagle	1	3rd	3rd	−0	6.8
2026-07-01	Fairyhouse	Dylan Browne McMonagle	?	1st	1st	0	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 9-13 · tight 69/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength23%

Delivery trend -15.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
01/07/2026	1st	15/2	61%	100%	+0.39
10/07/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	71%	+0.45
14/08/2026	1st	5/2	87%	100%	+0.13
26/09/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	60%	-0.01