14
Ballinea Star
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 14 · OR 100
Keeneland · Race 8 - John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - Grade 1 · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲6
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -5.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Curragh | Donagh O'Connor | BHA100 | 3rd | 15th | −10 |
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | Donagh O'Connor | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | Donagh O'Connor | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Cork | Donagh O'Connor | ? | 1st | 10th | −8 |
| 2026-05-16 | Navan | Donagh O'Connor | ? | 4th | 13th | −8 |
| 2026-04-27 | Naas | Donagh O'Connor | ? | 5th | 14th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +18.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/09/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |