De La Renta

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 93

Keeneland · Race 8 - John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - Grade 1 · 1m

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲3

Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 1.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C3.6

Today:

Class gap: -3.4

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Woodbine	Umberto Rispoli	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-15	Woodbine	Fraser Aebly	?	1st	6th	−4	3.8
2026-07-19	Woodbine	John Velazquez	?	1st	8th	−6	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 10-12 · tight 72/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength22%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/07/2026	1st	13/8	91%	100%	+0.09
15/08/2026	1st	13/8	91%	100%	+0.09
12/09/2026	2nd	11/2	71%	90%	+0.19