IvyArcIvyArc
12

Domestic Agenda

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 12 · OR 92

Keeneland · Race 8 - John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - Grade 1 · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m110y 1234/09C6C0 @ Belmont Park 03/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 90 par3/10C?OR 90projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03Belmont ParkFlavien Prat?1st1st−0
2026-09-04SaratogaFlavien Prat?1st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/093/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength49%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/09/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
03/10/20261st1/195%100%+0.05