16
Luminous Beauty
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 16 · OR 84
Keeneland · Race 8 - John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - Grade 1 · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲4
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Belmont Park | Jose Morelos | ? | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | Jose Morelos | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | Adam Beschizza | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 5-14 · tight 52/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 20% | -0.73 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |
| 03/10/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |