11
Scommessa Sicura
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 11 · OR 101
Keeneland · Race 8 - John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - Grade 1 · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Newmarket | Saffie Osborne | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Doncaster | Oisin Murphy | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Salisbury | Oisin Murphy | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | Oisin Murphy | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | Rob Hornby | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-01 | Newbury | Rob Hornby | 4 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 8-14 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 86% | +0.30 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 91% | +0.07 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 09/10/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |