Seneca Park

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 13 · OR 95

Keeneland · Race 8 - John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - Grade 1 · 1m

Rank

Odds

80/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲3

Strength6%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 1.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C3.6

Today:

Class gap: -3.4

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-02	Keeneland	Brian Jr Hernandez	?	2nd	2nd	−0	7.8
2026-08-30	Kentucky Downs	Brian Jr Hernandez	?	1st	6th	−4	3.8
2026-08-07	Ellis Park	Brian Jr Hernandez	?	1st	8th	−6	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 14-14 · tight 77/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/08/2026	1st	10/3	82%	100%	+0.18
30/08/2026	1st	2/1	89%	100%	+0.11
02/10/2026	2nd	3/1	84%	90%	+0.06