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7

Vanta

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 99

Keeneland · Race 8 - John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - Grade 1 · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲4
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Del Mar 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f Fm 12231/07C6C5 @ Del Mar 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 96 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 96 par7/09C5OR 96C1 @ Santa Anita 04/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 95 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark04/10/2026 · OR 95 par4/10C1OR 95projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-04Santa AnitaUmberto Rispoli?1st2nd−0
2026-09-07Del MarUmberto Rispoli?1st6th−4
2026-07-31Del MarUmberto Rispoli?1st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/077/094/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 14-14 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
07/09/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
04/10/20261st1/799%100%+0.01