American History

2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 96

Keeneland · Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance - Grade 1 · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

90%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲3

Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C3.1

Today:

Class gap: -2.9

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-03	Keeneland	John Velazquez	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-08-22	Saratoga	John Velazquez	?	1st	8th	−6	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-2 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength71%

Delivery trend -34.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/08/2026	1st	12/1	37%	100%	+0.63
03/10/2026	1st	11/2	71%	100%	+0.29