Coach Pope

2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 101

Keeneland · Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance - Grade 1 · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲4

Strength6%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C4.1

Today:

Class gap: -3.9

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-03	Keeneland	Jose Ortiz	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-09-12	Churchill Downs	Jose Ortiz	?	1st	8th	−6	2.0
2026-08-08	Saratoga	John Velazquez	?	2nd	9th	−6	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · tight 63/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength11%

Delivery trend -32.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/08/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	86%	+0.49
12/09/2026	1st	1/4	99%	100%	+0.01
03/10/2026	2nd	4/7	97%	80%	-0.17