8
He Is No Lie
2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 8 · OR 98
Keeneland · Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance - Grade 1 · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲3
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | Joel Rosario | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Del Mar | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 4-6 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |