5
Hughes
2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 111
Keeneland · Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance - Grade 1 · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Santa Anita | Juan Hernandez | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | Del Mar | Juan Hernandez | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Del Mar | Juan Hernandez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Joel Rosario | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 82/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength96%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 2/11 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 03/10/2026 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |