Crab Mentality
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 67
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Laurel Park | Jaime Rodriguez | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-09-18 | Laurel Park | Jaime Rodriguez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | Taylor Kingsley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | Daniel Centeno | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Laurel Park | Daniel Centeno | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Laurel Park | Martin Chuan | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 15/10/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |