Lucky Lis
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 12 · OR 70
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Laurel Park | Jean Briceno | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | Jean Briceno | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | Jean Briceno | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | Jorge Ruiz | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | Jean Briceno | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Laurel Park | Jeiron Barbosa | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 09/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 45% | -0.36 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/10/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |