11

Meatballsforaries

3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 11 · OR 57

Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Delaware Park 31/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 11931/07C9C9 @ Delaware Park 23/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 68 · 6f 119 · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 68 parC6 @ Delaware Park 18/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 67 · 7f110y Sft 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/09/2025 · OR 67 par18/09C6OR 67C9 @ Delaware Park 01/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 60 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark01/10/2025 · OR 60 parC6 @ Delaware Park 21/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 51 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 51 par21/07C6OR 51C9 @ Delaware Park 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 57 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 57 parC7 @ Delaware Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 60 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 60 par12/09C7OR 60C7 @ Delaware Park 16/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 61 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/10/2026 · OR 61 par16/10C7OR 61projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16Delaware ParkJulio Hernandez?5th4th+1
2026-09-12Delaware ParkJulio Hernandez?6th5th+1
2026-08-20Delaware ParkJulio Hernandez?1st2nd−1
2026-07-21Delaware ParkJulio Hernandez?7th5th+2
2025-10-01Delaware ParkJulio Hernandez?6th7th−1
2025-09-18Delaware ParkJaime Rodriguez?10th8th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/071/1012/0916/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 5-11 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength24%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20252nd2/189%86%-0.04
23/08/20252nd1/195%80%-0.15
18/09/202510th7/163%0%-0.63
01/10/20256th5/287%29%-0.58
21/07/20267th25/10%14%+0.14
20/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
12/09/20266th9/153%29%-0.24
16/10/20265th14/126%43%+0.17