5
Only Maria
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 61
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Laurel Park | Christian Maldonado | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Laurel Park | Christian Maldonado | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Laurel Park | Christian Maldonado | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Laurel Park | Christian Maldonado | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Laurel Park | Christian Maldonado | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Laurel Park | Jevian Toledo | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 6-11 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 12/10/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/11/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 29/11/2025 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 27% | -0.46 |
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 26/12/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |