Costa Amalfitana
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 81
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Delaware Park | Jaime Rodriguez | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | Ismerio Villalobos | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | Johan Rosado | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | Johan Rosado | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Gulfstream | Edgar Perez | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 24/12/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 16/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 03/10/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |