Imperio Azteca

4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 13 · OR 61

Laurel Park · Race 3 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ RUNS TO MARK

Move▼2

Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-25	Penn National	Luis Ocasio	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2025-08-08	Penn National	Luis Ocasio	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 9-9 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength23%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/08/2025	6th	25/1	0%	17%	+0.17
25/06/2026	5th	25/1	0%	20%	+0.20