Peony
5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 11 · OR 78
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Meadowlands | Reylu Gutierrez | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Monmouth Park | Christopher Elliott | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Monmouth Park | Charlie Marquez | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Laurel Park | Martin Chuan | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Belmont At The Big A | Fernando Jara | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Meadowlands | Fernando Jara | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 45% | -0.33 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/10/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/11/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 03/10/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |