Sticker Shocked
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 68
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Delaware Park | Martin Chuan | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Delaware Park | Charlie Marquez | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Fair Grounds | Colby Hernandez | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-02-01 | Fair Grounds | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Oaklawn Park | Cristian Torres | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-11-16 | Churchill Downs | Emmanuel Esquivel | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 27/12/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/03/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |