Mila Candy
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 82
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Laurel Park | Mychel Sanchez | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | Mychel Sanchez | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | Mychel Sanchez | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | Mychel Sanchez | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | Mychel Sanchez | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | Silvestre Gonzalez | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 33% | -0.60 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 10/10/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |