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2

Spencer Tiara

5yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 88

Laurel Park · Race 4 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Laurel Park 22/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/02/2025 · OR 81 par22/02C5OR 81C5 @ Laurel Park 08/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 91 · 7f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/03/2025 · OR 91 parC5 @ Laurel Park 14/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 93 · 6f Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 93 par14/11C5OR 93C8 @ Laurel Park 30/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 88 · 6f 123 · below its mark30/11/2025 · OR 88 parC5 @ Laurel Park 15/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 85 par15/02C5OR 85C5 @ Laurel Park 22/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 88 · 1m110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 88 parC5 @ Laurel Park 17/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 85 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 85 par17/04C5OR 85C5 @ Laurel Park 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 90 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 90 parC6 @ Delaware Park 24/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 92 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 92 par24/07C6OR 92projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Delaware ParkJulio Hernandez?7th6th+1
2026-06-05Laurel ParkSheldon Russell?1st-1th+2
2026-04-17Laurel ParkSheldon Russell?2nd0th+2
2026-03-22Laurel ParkSheldon Russell?1st-1th+2
2026-02-15Laurel ParkSheldon Russell?2nd0th+2
2025-11-30Laurel ParkJ G Torrealba?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0230/1117/0424/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength56%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/02/20252nd3/184%83%-0.01
08/03/20255th5/174%50%-0.24
14/11/20254th9/276%50%-0.26
30/11/20252nd15/261%80%+0.19
15/02/20262nd6/168%83%+0.15
22/03/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
17/04/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02
05/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
24/07/20267th10/382%0%-0.82