Turkish Breeze
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 8 · OR 69
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Laurel Park | Jevian Toledo | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | Laurel Park | Jevian Toledo | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Colonial Downs | Samuel Marin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Colonial Downs | Samuel Marin | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | Sonny Leon | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | Horacio Karamanos | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 02/10/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 17/10/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |