12

Belts 'n Brooks

6yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 12 · OR 90

Laurel Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 21/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m110y Fas 123 · below its mark21/01/2026 · OR 78 par21/01C8OR 78C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 27/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 80 · 7f Fas 122 · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 80 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 22/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 74 · 1m110y 123 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 74 par22/03C8OR 74C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 83 · 1m39y 123 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 83 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 24/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 85 · 7f 122 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 85 par24/04C8OR 85C8 @ Mountaineer 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 73 parC8 @ Mountaineer 25/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 75 · 6f 124 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 75 par25/08C8OR 75C8 @ Delaware Park 10/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 86 · 6f 121 · below its mark10/10/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Delaware Park 17/10/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 79 · 1m 122 · below its mark17/10/2026 · OR 79 par17/10C8OR 79projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-17Delaware ParkJesus Rios?10th11th−1
2026-10-10Delaware ParkEmanuel Rosario?7th8th−1
2026-08-25MountaineerJourae Williams?5th6th−1
2026-07-23MountaineerJason Simpson?4th5th−1
2026-04-24Tampa Bay DownsMarvin Fernandez?8th9th−1
2026-04-04Tampa Bay DownsMarvin Fernandez?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/014/0425/0817/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 8-10 · tight 81/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength6%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/01/202612th50/10%0%0.00
27/02/20268th40/10%36%+0.36
22/03/20268th40/10%36%+0.36
04/04/20266th33/10%44%+0.44
24/04/20268th40/10%22%+0.22
23/07/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
25/08/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
10/10/20267th25/10%0%0.00
17/10/202610th25/10%0%0.00