4
Souper Crunchy
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 89
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Meadowlands | Paco Lopez | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Delaware Park | Paco Lopez | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Colonial Downs | Paco Lopez | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Colonial Downs | Paco Lopez | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Colonial Downs | Ismerio Villalobos | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | Ismerio Villalobos | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 08/11/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 26/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |