15
Louvar
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 15
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength61%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Laurel Park | Taylor Kingsley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Laurel Park | Jorge Ruiz | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | Jareth Loveberry | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-08-23 | Colonial Downs | Taylor Kingsley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Colonial Downs | Taylor Kingsley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | Taylor Kingsley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 26/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 18/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 10/10/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |