Harewood

2yo Colt · 8-7 · Draw 2 · OR 82

Laurel Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-03	Laurel Park	Sheldon Russell	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-08-29	Colonial Downs	Jareth Loveberry	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-08-06	Colonial Downs	Sheldon Russell	?	1st	2nd	−1	8.4
2026-07-12	Colonial Downs	Sheldon Russell	?	6th	7th	−1	3.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 62/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength76%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
12/07/2026	6th	13/2	66%	38%	-0.28
06/08/2026	1st	11/4	86%	100%	+0.14
29/08/2026	3rd	5/1	74%	67%	-0.07
03/10/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	50%	-0.11