11
Midwest Princess
3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 11
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼3
Strength78%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | Presque Isle Downs | Pablo Morales | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-09-08 | Presque Isle Downs | Rosario Montanez | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 7-7 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -27.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 13/10/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |