Bourbon N Lace

4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 84

Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▲1

Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: -1.2

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-09	Penn National	Madeline Rowland	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-09-23	Delaware Park	Madeline Rowland	?	3rd	5th	−2	5.2
2026-08-07	Delaware Park	Madeline Rowland	?	4th	6th	−2	4.2
2026-07-26	Saratoga	Madeline Rowland	?	5th	7th	−2	3.2
2026-05-21	Delaware Park	Madeline Rowland	?	2nd	4th	−2	6.2
2026-04-10	Laurel Park	Madeline Rowland	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · tight 74/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength6%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/02/2026	1st	8/1	58%	100%	+0.42
22/02/2026	5th	6/1	68%	33%	-0.35
22/03/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	50%	+0.24
10/04/2026	3rd	25/1	0%	50%	+0.50
21/05/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	75%	+0.38
26/07/2026	5th	33/1	0%	33%	+0.33
07/08/2026	4th	4/1	79%	40%	-0.39
23/09/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	50%	-0.03
09/10/2026	4th	5/1	74%	40%	-0.34