1
Kentucky Mule
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 72
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Laurel Park | Carlos Lopez | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Colonial Downs | Jevian Toledo | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | Jevian Toledo | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | Jevian Toledo | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Turfway Park | Irving Moncada | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-26 | Churchill Downs | Luan Machado | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 02/01/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 45% | -0.28 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 06/08/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 19/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |