6
Profound Change
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 6 · OR 90
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Laurel Park | Martin Chuan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Laurel Park | Martin Chuan | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Laurel Park | Martin Chuan | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 3-4 · tight 71/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -31.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |