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4

Jemaa El Fna

2yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 6

Lyon-Parilly · Prix Baguenault De Puchesse Handicap · 7f 209y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

41%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Chantilly 07/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y GS 1287/07C5C5 @ Vichy 19/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 12819/08C5C5 @ Salon-De-Provence 14/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m208y Sft 12314/09C5C5 @ Marseille 07/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f207y Std 1247/10C5C0 @ Saint-Cloud 14/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f209y GS 12514/10C?projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-14Saint-CloudM Guyon?1st1st0
2026-10-07MarseilleJ Nicoleau?7th7th0
2026-09-14Salon-De-ProvenceM Grandin?2nd2nd0
2026-08-19VichyMarvin Grandin?7th7th0
2026-07-07ChantillyA Hamelin?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0719/0814/097/1014/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength37%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/07/20269th20/10%0%0.00
19/08/20267th80/10%50%+0.50
14/09/20262nd6/168%90%+0.22
07/10/20267th11/142%14%-0.28
14/10/20261st7/282%100%+0.18