4
Maintain
3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 4
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Du Grand Camp Listed Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#5
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Toulouse | C Demuro | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | ParisLongchamp | A Pouchin | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Chantilly | C Soumillon | 1 | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2026-06-07 | ParisLongchamp | C Soumillon | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | Colin Keane | 1 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-05 | ParisLongchamp | Colin Keane | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 10/05/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 58% | +0.21 |
| 09/10/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |