2
Niagara Du Seuil
3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 5
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Du Tremblay Stakes - Arab Group 3 · 1m 3f 204y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Saint-Cloud | Pierre-Charles Boudot | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Clairefontaine | J Phelippe | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-2 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength92%
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 08/10/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |