3
Noctali
3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 3
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Du Tremblay Stakes - Arab Group 3 · 1m 3f 204y
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Saint-Cloud | A Chesneau | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Moulins | A Chesneau | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength96%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 08/10/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |