6
Mourir D'envie
4yo Gelding · 10-7
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Du Mont Ventoux Hurdle · 2m 198y
#4
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Aix-Les-Bains | T Pierrisnard | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-07 | Lignieres | T Ventadour | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-24 | Saint-Cloud | T Servier | ? | 11th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Lignieres | T Servier | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Fontainebleau | L Philipperon | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-11-29 | Lignieres | L Vandamme | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 24/03/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 89% | +0.26 |