1
Lutece D'arthel
5yo Filly · 11-2
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Du Mont Blanc Hurdle · 2m 2f 195y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Pau | T Chevillard | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Pau | C Lefebvre | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-12-24 | Pau | C Lefebvre | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-04-03 | Auteuil | James Reveley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-02-09 | Pau | James Reveley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-01-23 | Pau | C Lefebvre | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2024 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 30/11/2024 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 23/01/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 09/02/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/04/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 24/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 13/01/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 64% | -0.26 |
| 23/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |