Al Muddy
6yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 5 · OR 62
Newcastle · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap · 1m 2f 42y
#14
Rank
Odds
125/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 6.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Newcastle | D Swift | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Wolverhampton | D Swift | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Newcastle | Alex Jary | 3 | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-11-24 | Newcastle | Alex Jary | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Newcastle | Alex Jary | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/11/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 10/01/2026 | 4th | 125/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/01/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/10/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |