Alembic
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 8 · OR 56
Newcastle · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap · 1m 2f 42y
#10
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Southwell | L Morris | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Newcastle | L Morris | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kempton | L Morris | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Southwell | Dylan Hogan | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +12.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 01/04/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 13/04/2026 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 19/10/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 77% | +0.06 |