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7

Bay Dream Believer

7yo Mare · 9-8 · Draw 1 · OR 58

Newcastle · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#6

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly raced on all-weather and has lower mark to work with in this sphere. Good second of 11 in a handicap over 1m here 18 days ago and she's not without hope back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength71%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 58 · 1m2f5y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 58 par2/065OR 585 @ Ripon 17/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 61 · 1m1f170y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 61 · 1m208y Goo 133 · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 61 par30/066OR 615 @ Nottingham 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 60 · 1m75y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Carlisle 11/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 64 · 7f173y Goo 141 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 64 par11/086OR 645 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 63 · 1m2f1y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 64 · 1m2f1y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 64 par9/095OR 645 @ Redcar 03/10/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m2f1y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/10/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Newcastle 12/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 57 · 1m5y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/10/2026 · OR 57 par12/105OR 57projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-12NewcastleSaffie Osborne52nd1st+1
2026-10-03RedcarJason Hart59th8th+1
2026-09-09RedcarJason Hart53rd2nd+1
2026-08-22RedcarJason Hart53rd2nd+1
2026-08-11CarlisleK S McHugh65th5th0
2026-07-18NottinghamK S McHugh51st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0618/079/0912/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 24/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength38%

Delivery trend +5.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
17/06/20267th9/488%14%-0.74
30/06/20266th11/142%17%-0.25
18/07/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
11/08/20265th9/153%43%-0.10
22/08/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22
09/09/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
03/10/20269th13/266%0%-0.66
12/10/20262nd50/10%90%+0.90