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8

Freddy Robinson

7yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 9 · OR 57

Newcastle · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#12

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran creditably when fourth in handicaps at Beverley and Southwell in September but below form when sixth of 10 at Wolverhampton last week and needs to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength74%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 60 · 1m4f98y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 60 par6/035OR 606 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 58 · 1m4f23y Goo 133 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Beverley 23/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 1m4f23y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 58 par23/045OR 586 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 1m4f23y Goo 134 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 58 · 1m4f23y Goo 135 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 58 par27/056OR 584 @ Hexham 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 113 · 2m48y Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 113 par5 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 58 · 1m1f207y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 58 par16/095OR 585 @ Southwell 24/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 58 · 1m3f24y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Wolverhampton 23/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m1f104y Std 132 · beat its mark23/10/2026 · OR 57 par23/106OR 57projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-23WolverhamptonRowan Scott66th6th0
2026-09-24SouthwellC J Whiteley54th3rd+1
2026-09-16BeverleyConnor Beasley54th3rd+1
2026-06-06HexhamDanny McMenamin45th3rd+2
2026-05-27BeverleyBen Robinson62nd2nd0
2026-05-04BeverleyBen Robinson62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/034/0516/0923/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 9-14 · tight 73/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/03/20266th14/126%17%-0.10
15/04/20264th4/179%73%-0.06
23/04/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
04/05/20262nd11/893%83%-0.09
27/05/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11
06/06/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
16/09/20264th18/15%67%+0.61
24/09/20264th17/255%50%-0.05
23/10/20266th17/255%44%-0.11